A Microsimulation Model to Assess the Impact of Prevention Efforts to Combat Sex Trafficking out of Five Eastern European States

Authors: Bailey, Stephanie

Abstract: Former Eastern bloc countries are major sources for sex trafficking. Estimates of the extent of trafficking out of these countries vary widely, and little knowledge exists on the effectiveness of anti-trafficking efforts. The objective of this work was to adapt microsimulation modeling to assess the impact of intervention efforts to combat sex trafficking out of Eastern Europe. We estimated trends of sex trafficking and compared interventions in terms of their reduction in sex trafficking. The overall incidence of sex trafficking out of Eastern Europe is projected to decrease, from about 140,000 women and children in 2007 to about 50,000 in 2017. However, the incidence rate increased in 2009 and 2012, consistent with the global recession. The most effective interventions are economic growth, followed closely by increased access to secondary education and restrictions on migration. Minimal reduction is achieved by raising awareness of the phenomenon and increasing TV usage. Yet, the primary mechanism currently being used to prevent sex trafficking out of Eastern Europe is public awareness campaigns. Efforts should focus more on boosting the economy, increasing access to secondary education, and facilitating dialogue about how to promote legal immigration avenues.

Keywords: Eastern Europe, microsimulation modeling, sex trafficking, stochastic modeling