Toward a Better Understanding of Human Security Risks: Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for Human Trafficking at the onset, during and after conflict

Author: Fenton, Toby; Hesketh, Graham; Maio, Guiseppe; Muraszkiewicz, Julia & Watson, Hayley

Abstract: Human trafficking is one of a number of issues that can undermine human security and exacerbate conflict and crisis, and so it has significant implications for the planning and conduct of military operations and associated conflict-related stabilization activities. While public and private sector bodies have expended much energy in efforts to tackle human trafficking in domestic policing and criminal justice contexts, challenges remain in understanding and responding to human trafficking during times of  conflict and crisis. This article reports on the results of a study conducted in collaboration with the UK Ministry of Defense (MOD) to co-design and validate a proof-of-concept risk assessment methodology on human trafficking in conflict. The risk assessment includes three components: (a) an assessment of human trafficking prevalence; (b) an assessment of threats and vulnerabilities; and (c) a scenario-based impact assessment. The study also developed a cloud-based version of the risk assessment which incorporated the question sets and involved the creation of open data-based dashboard visualizations to support data-driven decision-making. The findings from this study contain the potential to be expanded beyond the military toward other actors in the human security and humanitarian domains, thereby supporting progress toward UN Sustainable Development Goal 16 regarding promoting just, peaceful and inclusive societies.

Keywords: conflict, decision-making, human security, human trafficking, risk assessment