How many trafficked people are there in Greater New Orleans? Lessons in measurement

Author: Bales, Kevin; Murphy, Laura & Silverman, Bernard

Abstract: In an effort to develop a model for estimating prevalence in a city or region of the United States, this study employed Multiple Systems Estimation, a statistical approach that uses data on known cases collected from individual agencies to estimate the number not known, with the ultimate aim of estimating the prevalence of trafficking in a region. Utilizing de-identified data provided by local non-profits and law enforcement agencies, the researchers estimated the prevalence of trafficking in the New Orleans-Metairie metropolitan statistical area. This represents one of the first attempts to use Multiple Systems Estimation to quantify human trafficking in a United States context. The article provides an account of the impediments to and limitations of conducting such an estimate, given the definitional variance and political dynamics that are endemic to anti-trafficking efforts in the United States. The authors provide recommendations for data collection and prevalence analysis that could be applied in other cities or regions of the United States as well as in other similarly-resourced environments.

Keywords: human trafficking, sex trafficking, labor trafficking, measurement, multiple systems estimation, New Orleans