War Economies, Post-Conflict Transition and Human Trafficking

Author: Giulla, Anna; Jayasundara-Smits, Shyamika & Murshed, Mansoob

Abstract: This research explores the role of war economies in producing specific types of vulnerabilities during the transitional phase to postwar. We identify human trafficking as one such type of vulnerability that can be linked to war and postwar transitions. To explain the emergence of postwar trafficking, we develop a comprehensive framework connecting global, regional and local dynamics, relying on both qualitative and quantitative data. Our mixed method approach, including a regression analysis and a country case study on Guatemala, indicates that exploitation is deeply entangled with the dynamics of armed conflicts and post-conflict transition. For example, in Guatemala, the criminalization of the economy, socio-political exclusion and continued militarization of the state are all significant factors shaping mobility and vulnerability to trafficking. Understanding this phenomenon requires developing a nuanced perspective, challenging fixed categorizations of trafficking and engaging with the underlying mechanisms of marginalization that normalize postwar exploitation. This research contributes to the advancement of SDG 16 by proposing a thorough analysis of postwar transitions that can help formulate solutions that tackle structural violence and sustain peace.

Keywords: human trafficking, inequality, postwar transition, structural violence, transnational networks, war economies